Investigating effective strategies to reduce harvest leakage in forests

The purpose of the project is to examine forest policy instruments and to determine the extent of historical and future potential harvesting leakage that may arise as a result of reduced forest harvesting in Sweden.

Forests are among Sweden’s most important natural resources. They provide raw material for construction and paper production, supply biofuels, and offer recreational opportunities. Growing forests also contribute to climate actions by sequestering carbon dioxide, while harvested forest products can replace fossil materials and fuels.

According to Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Swedish forest has an annual net uptake of approximately 32 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents – compared to Sweden’s annual emissions of approximately 44 million tons. Forests therefore contribute to climate benefit both when they are preserved and when they are managed sustainably.

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that the forests have become the focus for academic and political discussions on how they can best contribute to the climate transition.

The researchers in the project focus on forest policy instruments aimed at increasing carbon storage in standing forests. For such measures to be effective, they need to generate a climate benefit that would not otherwise occur – additionally – be durable over time and avoid causing increased emissions or logging in other regions as an unintended consequence – harvest leakage.

Harvesting leakage means that reduced logging in one county – for example, due to increased protected forest areas – may lead to increased harvesting in another country. This occurs because the reduced supply of timber drives up prices, thereby creating incentives for harvesting elsewhere.

Research indicates that this is a significant challenge. In Norway, harvest leaking has been estimated at between 60 and 100 percent, which means that a reduction of 1.0 cubic meter of roundwood may lead to an increase of 0.6 to 1.0 cubic meter harvested elsewhere. This illustrates the need to account for leakage effects in climate policy assessment. If overlooked, the climate benefits of various measures risk  being overestimated – or even turning negative. Despite harvest leakage being a well-documented phenomenon, comprehensive empirical studies analyzing its effects in the Swedish context are lacking.

The project therefore aims to contribute with new knowledge that enables the development of effective strategies to reduce leakage effects and thereby enhance the overall climate benefit. At the same time, it promotes sustainable forestry and a strong bioeconomy.

From a systems perspective, the researchers examine how policies, trade flows, and market dynamics interact and influence harvest leakage.

The research team will apply advanced system analysis and database methods to map trade patterns and identify key mechanisms in the forest products markets. Furthermore, they will analyze how changes in harvesting volumes and policy instruments affect leakage and test alternative policy options in scenario models to clarify their effects on both the competitiveness of the Swedish bioeconomy and global carbon emissions.